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It has been more than a year since the beginning of this war, and there is still no end in sight. Predictably, the Russian ruling class continued building an authoritarian system, it’s the only way for it to survive and stay and power, after all.
There are no good ways to fix it, though. Sanctions are effective, but it’s more of a mid to long-term medicine. A military confrontation is a thing NATO strives to avoid. The revolution from within is unlikely due to the reasons listed above.
That still holds true, I guess. Sanctions helped to slow down the war machine, but they can’t stop nor reverse it.
Anyway, I think the best bet is an internal conflict, not the external one. The stakes are high, and every dictator knows that war is a double-edged sword. If it goes as planned, and you reach your goals, it can boost your rating. If your plans fail, it can be the end of your dictatorship. I’m cautiously optimistic at this point…
I’m still cautiously optimistic and people started to notice some serious internal conflicts among the bureaucrats. The problem is, the Western pushback wasn’t strong enough to exacerbate those conflicts.
I’m Russian and I work in IT, although I left Russia many years ago, mainly for political reasons. The IT sector is in full panic mode right now, many people are looking for jobs abroad, preferably with relocation options. I have little sympathy for people who were silent and who supported this fascist regime with their taxes, but it’s good they are scared and running away. It means sanctions work. Sanctions is an effective way to accelerate the brain drain, which has a disastrous consequences for Putin’s regime.
The funny thing is, US and EU were dumb enough not to absorb this sudden influx of people who were willing to settle in the Western countries and contribute to their economies. Many of those people were mistreated and forced to come back to Russia. Now, their lives are in danger and they have to pay their taxes in Russia. Guess where those taxes are going now?
Although so-called silent majority is to blame, EU isn’t an innocent party, too. Who buys Russian oil and gas? Just remember where all that money goes. Starving Putin’s war machine till it breaks down is our common moral imperative. Anyone who refuses to do that must face severe consequences.
Not surprisingly, Europe is still buying Russian resources, although it’s using a few intermediaries in order to look a bit less hypocritical than it actually is.
This war didn’t reveal anything interesting about Russia, I knew it all along and I was ready. What’s really interesting is the dire and hopeless state of the Western ruling class. Despite having a massive advantage and leverage, the Western leaders failed to stop this conflict and maintain the global piece and prosperity.
My main takeaway from this conflict is the fact that you can’t really trust any government, ruling class is the enemy of people and its quality is pretty poor in every country. I have no sympathy for Putin and his pals, but I equally despise the Western leaders who contributed to this mess. The good news is, we can stop them all and break free of their control, that’s why I keep working on Bitcoin.