Russia is currently at war with Ukraine. Just wanted to share my experiences and observations over the last 10+ years.

Russia has been moving towards full scale genocidal dictatorship for many years. Most Russians fully understood it but tried to ignore this problem, hoping that it will disappear somehow. It’s fair to say that the passive majority should share the blame, but it’s also important to understand that most Russians strongly oppose this war. This is a big problem for Putin, and that’s how he tries to solve it:

• Russians are not allowed to call this war a war. Seriously, you can be imprisoned for that.
• Pretty much all private and independent media companies were banned and/or forced to shut down their operations. Many Russians simply can’t access any news source except state-controlled propaganda.
• Russians have no right of assembly. People who participate in anti-war rallies just end up getting detained, often violently.

I wish the world cared more when it was mostly our local issue. Now, it’s an international issue, and we need to fix it once and for all. There are no good ways to fix it, though. A military confrontation is a thing NATO strives to avoid, and a revolution from within is unlikely due to the reasons listed above.

Anyway, I think the best bet is an internal conflict, not the external one. The stakes are high, and every dictator knows that war is a double-edged sword. If it goes as planned, and you reach your goals, it can boost your rating. If your plans fail, it can be the end of your regime. I’m cautiously optimistic at this point, and that’s why:

• The war is clearly taking longer than Putin expected.
• The Russian casualties are massive, even the state propaganda admits that.
• The sanctions are a lot tougher than Putin expected, he can’t even open a stock market, and he had to go nuclear with the exchange rate and capital outflow restrictions.
• The stated reason for this war is to push back on NATO, but now Finland and Sweden want to join it. This is going to be a huge humiliation for Putin.
• This war forced Germany to increase its military budget rather dramatically. It’s going to be really hard for Putin to sell it as a victory, no matter what happens in Ukraine.

I’m Russian, although I left Russia many years ago, mainly for political reasons. Although I have little sympathy for people who were silent and who supported this fascist regime with their taxes, it’s a good thing that they’re scared and running away. There are many effective ways to accelerate the brain drain, which has a disastrous consequences for Putin’s regime.

Although so-called silent majority is to blame, EU isn’t an innocent party, too. Who’s paying for Russian oil and gas? Just remember where all that money goes.